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中国对美贸易二十年首次出现逆差

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发表于 2010-4-10 00:13:51 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
April 9 (Bloomberg) -- China may post its first tradedeficit in six years after a surge in imports of commodities andconsumer goods, weakening U.S. arguments that the nation iskeeping its currency undervalued to gain an advantage.     
       Imports probably exceeded exports by $390 million in Marchafter a $7.6 billion trade surplus the previous month, accordingto the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 26economists. The customs bureau is scheduled to release thefigures tomorrow. Part of the shift into deficit is likely dueto rising commodity prices, economists said.     
       U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner met in Beijingyesterday with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan amid risingpressure from American lawmakers for action to rein in a U.S.trade gap with China that was $227 billion last year. PremierWen Jiabao’s government has said a stable yuan and its 4trillion yuan ($586 billion) fiscal stimulus has contributed tothe global recovery.     
       “China has done a lot in terms of restructuring globalimbalances,” said Michael Buchanan, chief Asia-Pacificeconomist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong, whopreviously worked at the International Monetary Fund. Any impactfrom yuan appreciation will be “dwarfed by the swings in thetrade balance driven by domestic demand in China and the U.S.,”he said.     
       Yuan forwards declined 0.1 percent to 6.6228 per dollar asof 11:11 a.m. in Hong Kong, suggesting that the Chinese currencymay appreciate about 3 percent over the next year.     
       Export Damage     
       China has kept the yuan pegged around 6.83 per dollar sinceJuly 2008, seeking to aid exporters during the deepestcontraction in trade since World War II. Exports still tumbledfor 13 straight months, shrinking the nation’s trade surplus by34 percent last year to $196 billion.     
       The damage has left policy makers reluctant to rush toremove emergency measures even as growth accelerates and arecord credit boom threatens to spark a property bubble. Centralbank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in a March 23 interview thatofficials want to ensure the world isn’t in a “W-shapedrecovery,” with a slowdown coming after the current rebound.     
       Geithner’s visit yesterday, and his delay last week of theU.S. Treasury’s decision on whether to label China a currencymanipulator in a biannual report, have boosted speculationpolicy makers will end the dollar peg.     
       ‘Imminent’ Policy Change     
       A change in China’s currency policy is “imminent” and mayoccur over the next few weeks, Ben Simpfendorfer, a Hong Kong-based economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said todayon Bloomberg Television. Former U.S. Treasury UndersecretaryTimothy Adams said in a separate interview that the nation maymove “fairly soon” to allow appreciation against the dollar.     
       China may announce a revised policy within days with asmall, one-time jump in the yuan, which would then be allowed totrade in a greater range against the dollar, the New York Timesreported yesterday, citing unidentified people with knowledge ofan emerging consensus on the issue.     
       The model for the shift would be the revaluation in July2005, when the yuan was allowed to rise 2.1 percent overnight.     
       Goldman Sachs predicts the government will announce incoming weeks a widening of the 0.5 percent band in which theyuan is allowed to fluctuate against the dollar.     
       Buchanan said that setting the yuan against a basket ofcurrencies weighted for the amount of trade China does withmajor economies would offer authorities greater flexibility andreduce the risk of traders making a “one way bet” onappreciation in the yuan against the dollar.     
       Commodity Costs     
       China’s exports probably rose 26.9 percent in March from ayear earlier, after expanding 45.7 percent in the previousmonth, according to Bloomberg survey of economists. Imports mayhave grown 55.7 percent, compared with a gain of 44.7 percent,according to the median forecast.     
       The projected shortfall in trade would reflect in part arise in the cost of imported commodities, Jinny Yan, a Shanghai-based economist at Standard Chartered, said last month. Wen saidduring a meeting with foreign executives March 22 in Beijing thedeficit for early March was $8 billion.     
       The trade surplus narrowed for four straight months throughFebruary. The shift reflects China’s accelerating manufacturingand retail sales at a time when U.S. spending is hurt by jobcuts and falling home values.     
       Growth in the world’s third-largest economy quickened to10.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, the fastest pacesince 2007. Inflation was a higher-than-forecast 2.7 percent inFebruary and property prices rose the most in almost two years.     
       ‘Temporary’ Deficit     
       The March trade gap may not be sustained as exports pick uppace.     
       “We believe the deficit was temporary,” said PengWensheng, head of China research with Barclays Capital in HongKong. “Exports will pick up in the rest of the year, and weexpect the trade balance to return to positive starting in thesecond quarter.”     
       Economic data in coming days may show China’s banks made729.5 billion yuan of new loans in March, according to themedian estimate of 20 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Newbank lending totaled 700.1 billion yuan in February.     
       Separate figures are projected to show M2, the broadestmeasure of money supply, rose 22.2 percent in March, slowingfrom a gain of 25.5 percent in February.
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